The subprime market debacle

"Subprime” refers to an unusual and complex economic situation that has been unfolding in the United States. The term conveys a negative situation, which is the intent.

I’m fascinated with the subprime market debacle and its repercussions. I’m waiting for someone to write a definitive book on the subject. I’m surprised nobody has yet. But that might be due to the fact that it is such a convoluted subject and still unfolding. It’s like a pyramid scheme. The phenomenon is like an octopus, with tentacles reaching out into numerous finance markets and who knows where else. I don’t know all the ins and outs of it but here’s what I understand about it.

What people associate most with subprime is the housing market and the real estate bubble it created. But it is also about its contagions in other areas of finance and commerce. If there were a beginning to the whole thing it might be the recession of 2000-1 and the weak stock market that followed. However, there are also other factors that occurred before which helped enable it. Also, a big part of its happening has to with American culture and its attitude towards capitalism.

There are many reasons why something occurs. It's never just one thing why something happens or becomes possible. It’s a combination of things. I keep saying that about democracy. The subprime debacle is no exception. Nevertheless, everybody likes a starting point. So if there were really a starting point it would have to be human greed, and the personal need for more. It also has to do with the American way of life and its pursuit of happiness. And then there is the bandwagon effect, with people saying “me too, me too".

The greed factor is not just an American trait. However, in many democratic societies we tend to have laws that protect us from ourselves, from the worst aspects of human behavior. Americans tend not to like such restrictions because they are more libertarian and distrustful of government interference, on telling them how to live.

Back in the 1990's banks demanded looser restrictions on their activities. Many of those restrictions were established during the Great Depression in which many bank failures occurred. The pro-business Republican Congress in the 90's obliged the banks and dropped many restrictions. This allowed the banks to be more aggressive and creative, allowing them to design many exotic and complex investment vehicles know as derivatives. In time some of those derivatives would incorporate and hide the subprime loans that would later act like time bombs, affecting other areas of the economy.

What also made subprime loans possible were low interest rates. The Federal Reserve of the US had cut interest rates almost to the bone to get America spending and out of the recession, to keep the economy growing. Money was very cheap to borrow and available to almost anybody who wanted it; to almost anybody who could breath, as the saying goes. It was lent even to those who seemed to have no chance of repaying it. But that didn't stop lenders because in a sense the rules had changed, like the laws of economics and what-goes-up-must-come-down had been repudiated. Logic and reason about lending and borrowing money seemed to have gone out the window. And the government and its financial regulators watched all this as though nothing was wrong, as though a new dawn had graced America.

Another thing that enabled the subprime debacle was the huge drop in the stock market in 2000-1. Investors were unwilling to invest in it because the returns were unfavorable. Instead they turned to real estate and housing which was relatively cheap and cheap money made it even cheaper. People thus started to invest and trade in housing like it was a commodity, "flipping" properties and houses left and right. From my perspective it seemed crazy because the prices where spiraling ever upward and becoming ridiculous, Nevertheless, the practice continue for many years, as long as money remained cheap.

All this frenzy inevitably begot more frenzy with every "Tom, Dick and Harry” getting into the act. It also spawned unscrupulous mortgage lenders, mostly due to the lack of government oversight and the relaxation of mortgage and banking regulations. But all this was also made possible by the philosophy of the Bush administration, which encouraged such practices. It had total confidence in the freedom of market, as though it was some elixir. Its philosophy was to encourage an "ownership society" which dovetailed nicely into the subprime activity. People who normally were unable to buy or own a house, because of a poor credit rate or lack of sufficient capital were now owners. Bush&Co, which seems to have a C- in economics, were ecstatic with the results because the subprime market was expanding the ownership society.

The market and the people involved thought that this 'game' could continue forever. And the surprising thing is that people that we would think of as intelligent and in the know, like two Federal Reserve chairmen, thought everything was just fine, that people could continue to push up prices and spend money like there was not tomorrow. To them it was just a bit of "irrational exuberance". Eventually, though, the cost of borrowing money increased, ending the party and forcing many people to give up their houses because they could not afford their escalating mortgages.

All this frenzy eventually led to overbuilding, which then put downward pressure on the value of properties. In many cases the value of the property became lower than the mortgage. As a result lenders would instigate foreclosure proceedings and called in their loans for fear of losing their money, further exacerbating the situation.

Like all bubbles the housing bubble burst, last year, sending shock waves through the financial markets, which had packaged and buried many of the bad housing loans in the derivatives they had devised and sold to unsuspecting investors. Some of the big institutional investors did know what was taking place but thought that since this was a brave new world, as they imagined, the market was immune to the shocks this activity might cause.

One thing that has suffered through all this is, trust. Banking and financial markets operate on trust. Members trust each other to tell the others about the possible risks involved. They generally support each other in times of financial upheavals. But this time it's different. It's as though a line was crossed and a bond was broken. In the old days derivatives involving things like subprime loans were consider "junk". This time they were peddled as if they were prime and classified as AAA. Those who held large positions on those derivatives had the rug pulled out from under them. That trust will take time to rebuild. One other major fallout from all this is that many credit markets and sources of venture capital have dried up, vehicles that are essential for keeping the economy going.

There's lots more to be said about the subprime market.