"Will things get worse?"

It bothers me that people think that the economic mess we are in is fueled by negative thinking on the part of the media and consumers. It follows that if we think this way the economy will naturally get worse and becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. However, the argument goes, if we begin to think positively things will improve. To my way of thinking nothing could be further from the truth.

Recently an article in The Toronto Star argued such a point, that it's our collective negativity that is causing economic pain and making a recession a self-fulfilling prophecy. Its author is David Olive. Here is my response to his argument, which the paper published, edited of course:

David Olive overlooked today's precarious economic fundamentals, particularly in banking. Never have we seen such a calamity in banking caused by financial instruments that took on a life of their own. Derivatives have become contagions, so unpredictable that financial markets are frozen, continually waiting for the next shoe to drop.

Because of this there has been a lack of liquidity due to a lack of trust and confidence between financial institutions. And banks became over-leveraged to a point that became unsustainable. This was eventually exposed by the real estate bubble those financial institutions happily enabled.

Never have we seen large corporations like GM, Citigroup and GE, the backbone of the U.S. economy, in such dire straits. This alone is creating a "self-fulfilling prophecy."

At the root of the problem is excess – from over production to over capacity. There were too many stores, too many buildings, too many car producers. Eventually the economy became saturated; people could only buy and absorb so much.

Supply-side economics – "If you build it they will come" – got too far ahead of itself. Perhaps if money hadn't been so cheap this would not have happened.

Will things get worse? Most likely. But because of economic fundamentals that still need fixing, not people's misdirected psychology.